NEA has made a downward adjustment to the forecast for freight transport. The situation is worse than expected. The total volume transported by road, rail and inland waterway in 2009 will be below the 2004 level. The transport of freight fell by 11.8% in 2009, while NEA previously expected a 10.4% decrease. Stabilisation is expected in the first two quarters of 2010 with slight growth at the end of 2010.
 
From the second short-term forecast by the NEA research and consultancy firm it appears that the separate road, rail and inland waterway transport sectors will each show a different picture in 2010. The first signs of recovery will be translated into an increase in the transport of chemical products. Due to the increase in international trade, the transport of steel and finished products/containers will again show a slight increase at the end of 2010. Construction remains a point of concern; this also continues to decrease in 2010. It also appears that inland shipping will not immediately benefit from the economic recovery.

Road transport
The expectation is that the volume of road transport in the chemicals sector in 2009 will decrease by more than 20% compared to 2008. We also anticipate a 19% drop in the volumes of finished products and container transport. The road transport of construction materials during the past few months has built on existing construction output. The expectation is that the output will subside further after the summer and will also decrease in 2010, resulting in a further volume reduction. The chemicals sector is early cyclical and will therefore be one of the first to notice the economic upswing in 2010. Slight growth in finished products and container transport will only commence in the second half of 2010.

Inland waterways
The coming quarters will see a stabilisation in the development of volume transported by inland waterway. The seasonal fluctuations take place around a structurally low level of 67 million tonnes per quarter. Finished products and containers are currently experiencing a period of turbulent shrinkage with an expected decrease in 2009 of more than 20% compared to 2008. An exception is the transport of energy coal to Germany; its transhipment in Dutch ports rose in the first quarter of 2009. This leads to an increase in coal in inland shipping transport from the Netherlands.

Rail transport
Compared to 2008, rail transport will show a 10% volume decrease in 2009. It is expected that the volume will increase slightly in 2010. The transport of energy-related products (coal and mineral oil) is experiencing a slightly increasing trend. The expectation is that this market will grow further in 2010. The transport of metal products is showing a strong decrease in volume. As a result of the improvement in the steel market, this development will come to a halt in 2010 and slight growth may be seen.

Note for the press, not for publication:
For more information about NEA?s short-term freight transport prediction, please contact Menno Menist (managing director), NEA Transportonderzoek en -opleiding B.V., P.O. Box 276, 2700 AG Zoetermeer, +31 79-322 23 00.